金融发展、财政支出与经常项目调整——基于面板ARDL模型的研究

Financial Development,Fiscal Expenditure and Current Account Adjustment——Research based on Panel ARDL Model

利用我国31个省(自治区、直辖市)2007-2016年的面板数据,运用面板自回归分布滞后模型,探讨了金融发展、财政支出对经常项目余额的长短期影响。结果表明长期内金融发展、财政支出均显著负向、正向影响各地区经常项目余额;短期内,财政支出增加将会缩小经常项目余额,而金融发展则不具有显著作用。因此,在我国经常项目持续调整的过程中,各地区应充分利用市场化的金融手段替代行政性的财政手段,以保证经常项目的持续平衡。

Using the panel data set of China's 31 provinces over the period from 2007-2016,and the panel autoregressive distributed lag model,this paper aims to examine the relationship between financial development,fiscal expenditure and current account balance in the long and short-term.The results of the regression show that financial development and fiscal expenditure has significantly negative,positive effects on the current account balance respectively in the long run;in the short term,the increase in fiscal expenditure will reduce the current account balance,while financial development will not have a significant effect.Therefore,in the process of continuous adjustment of the current account surplus in China,all regions should make full use of market-based financial means to replace the administrative financial means and ensure the balance of current account continues.