西北太平洋柔鱼丰度的灰色灾变预测

Grey catastrophe year prediction for the abundance of neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) in the Northwest Pacific

柔鱼(Ommastrephes bartramii)为短生命周期的头足类,其资源丰度极易受海洋环境变化影响,年间波动较大。根据1995?2017年西北太平洋柔鱼渔业生产统计数据,以单位捕捞努力量渔获量(CPUE)作为资源丰度指数,运用灰色灾变预测方法对上、下限灾变年份建立GM(1,1)模型,预测未来灾变年份。结果显示,以GLM模型标准化CPUE建立的下限灾变预测模型的平均相对误差为15.32%,上限灾变预测模型的平均相对误差为8.19%,模型精度检验等级均为Ⅰ级。研究认为,下一个资源丰年(CPUE大于2.39 t/(船·a))将出现在2021年,资源歉年(CPUE小于2.13 t/(船·a))将出现在2027年;太平洋年代际涛动与El Ni?o-La Ni?a事件是驱使柔鱼丰度大幅度波动的重要因素。该预测结果可为西北太平洋鱿钓生产企业和管理部门提供参考。

Neon flying squid Ommastrephes bartramii is a short-lived cephalopod species whose abundance is highly susceptible to marine environmental changes and has large interannual fluctuations. Based on the statistical data from the squid fishery in the Northwest Pacific from 1995 to 2017, catch per unit effort(CPUE) was derived as an abundance index and the grey catastrophic prediction method was used to establish the GM(1, 1)model for the upper and lower catastrophic years and to forecast the future catastrophic years. The results show that the average relative error of the lower limit catastrophic prediction model established based on GLM-model-standardized CPUE is 15.32%, the average relative error of the upper catastrophic prediction model is 8.19%, and the accuracy tests for both models attain the level Ⅰ accuracy. The study forecasts that the next upper catastrophic year may occur in 2021(CPUE≥2.39 t/(ship·a)), and the lower catastrophe year occurred in 2027(CPUE≤2.13 t/(ship·a)). The study also suggests that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Ni?o-La Nina events are important factors driving large fluctuations in the squid abundance. The forecast can provide a reference for squid fishing enterprises and managing departments in the Northwest Pacific.