“一带一路”区域气候变化事实、影响及可能风险

The Belt and Road region climate change:facts,impacts and possible risks

“一带一路”区域国家经济、政治发展极不平衡,随着全球气候变暖,区域内的自然环境、气候资源、水资源等都将面临着显著而复杂的变化,并且干旱、洪涝等多种气候灾害是“一带一路”区域可持续发展和重大基础设施建设面临的重大威胁之一。目前,“一带一路”倡议已经进入实质性建设阶段,沿线地区的气候变化及其灾害风险关乎“一带一路”倡议能否顺利实施及亚投行的投资安全。在此背景下,2016—2018年中国科学院地球科学学部实施了“‘一带一路’区域气候变化问题”咨询评议项目,项目针对该区域气候变化的事实、未来变化预估、气候变化的可能影响以及带来的潜在风险等问题进行了系统的调研,并开展了若干分析和研究。经过两年的努力,项目组完成了有关进展报告四份,包括一份总报告和三份分报告。本文扼要地概括和介绍了项目取得的主要成果。

The economic and political development of countries in the Belt and Road region is extremely uneven.Along with the progression of global warming,the natural environment,ecological environment,climate resources and water resources throughout the region will face new pressure brought by such significant changes.Moreover,drought,flood and other climate disasters are major threats to the sustainable development and major infrastructure construction in the Belt and Road region.At present,the Belt and Road Initiative has entered the substantive construction stage.Climate change and disaster risks occurring along the routes are related to the smooth implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative and investment security of the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank(AIIB).In this context,the Department of Geosciences of the Chinese Academy of Sciences implemented the“Belt and Road region climate change issues”consultation project from June 2016 to June 2018.As part of the project systematic research was conducted on the facts of climate change throughout the region,as well as the prediction of future change,the possible impacts of climate change,and the potential risks brought on by climate change.Throughout this period,a number of analyses and studies have been carried out.After two years of implementation,the project team has completed four progress reports,including one general report and three sub-reports.The present paper briefly summarizes and introduces these achievements.