IAP-DecPreS年代际气候预测系统及其预报技巧

Decadal prediction system IAP-DecPreS and its predictive skill

针对未来1~10 a气候状态的近期气候预测(年代际预测)是当前国际气候领域的研究热点。本文综述了中国科学院大气物理研究所发展的基于耦合气候系统模式的年代际气候预测系统IAP-DecPreS相关的研究进展。IAP-DecPreS系统的核心部分是耦合模式海洋分量初始化方案,“集合最优插值-分析增量更新”(EnOI-IAU)方案,该方案将集合最优插值(EnOI)和增量分析更新(IAU)结合起来,能够同化原始的海洋次表层温度廓线观测资料,对耦合模式进行初始化。系统的年代际回报试验表明,IAP-DecPreS对太平洋年代际振荡和大西洋多年代际变率的预测技巧与耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)技巧较高的模式相当。IAP-DecPreS系统被广泛应用于气候预测相关研究,包括火山气溶胶对年代际预测技巧的影响,全场同化和异常场同化两种不同的初始化方法对ENSO、印度洋偶极子模态和印度洋洋盆模态等的预测技巧的影响。最后,结合国际发展态势,对未来IAP-DecPreS的发展进行了讨论。

Decadal climate prediction(near-term climate prediction)targeting the climate states over future 1-10 years is an international research hotspot of the climate area.This paper summarizes the progresses of a decadal climate prediction system,IAP-DecPreS,which was developed by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences.The key part of the IAP-DecPreS is an initialization scheme for the ocean component of a coupled general circulation model.The initialization scheme was referred to as EnOI-IAU scheme,which is a combination of the Ensemble Optimal interpolation(EnOI)and Incremental analysis update(IAU).It can initialize the coupled model via assimilating raw observational oceanic temperature profiles.Hindcast experiments indicated that the IAP-DecPreS has predictive skill for the Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO)and Atlantic multi-decadal variability(AMV),comparable with the high-skill CMIP5 models.IAP-DecPreS has been widely used in the climate research,including the impacts of volcanic eruptions on the decadal predictive skill,the impacts of two distinct initialization approaches,full-field assimilation and anomaly assimilation,on the predictions of ENSO,Indian Ocean dipole and Indian Ocean basin mode.At last,the authors discuss the future development of the IAP-DecPreS under the guidance of global perspective.