次季节-季节尺度热带气旋活动研究和预测技术进展

Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone activity in the Western North Pacific:a review

从外部强迫和大气内部变率两个方面回顾次季节-季节尺度西北太平洋热带气旋活动的主要影响因子及相关机制研究进展,分析统计、动力及混合动力-统计混合3类预测技术的发展历史和现状,对该领域尚未解决的主要科学问题及预测技术发展趋势进行了探讨。

In this paper,the external forcing factors and internal variabilities which impact the Western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity(WNPTC)on the sub-seasonal to seasonal time scale were reviewed,along with the associated mechanisms.Additionally,the developing history and current situation were summarized for the prediction techniques,including statistical,dynamical and hybrid statistical-dynamical approaches.Also discussed were several scientific issues which require further research,as well as the future trends of prediction technique development.