兰州市冬季采暖对空气质量影响的断点分析

Breakpoint Analysis of Influence of Winter Heating on Air Quality in Lanzhou City

基于2015-2018年兰州市空气质量及气象数据,采用断点回归方法估计冬季采暖事件对空气质量污染物浓度的处置效应,借此研究兰州市煤改气、煤改电等政策实施之后,采暖前后空气质量指数及6项污染物的结构性变化。3 a采暖期对比分析结果显示:冬季采暖效应显著增加了空气质量污染程度,在样本平均水平上相当于使AQI增加了约31.35%;PM2.5和PM10在断点两侧提升约52.08%、44.56%;O3无明显规律,PM2.5、PM10的增加间接导致浓度下降。

Based on the air quality and meteorological data of Lanzhou City from 2015 to 2018,the breakpoint regression method was used to estimate the concentration of air quality pollutants caused by winter heating events in disposition effect, so as to study the structural changes of air quality index and six pollutants before and after heating after the implementation of policies such as coal to gas and coal to electricity in Lanzhou City. The comparative analysis results of the three-year heating period show that the heating effect in winter significantly increases the air quality pollution degree, which is equivalent to increasing AQI by about 31.35% on the average level of samples. PM2.5 and PM10 increased by 52.08% and 44.56% on both sides of the breakpoint.O3 has no obvious regularity, and the increase of PM2.5 and PM10 in the air indirectly leads to the decrease of concentration.