处于转折期的朝鲜半岛:国际合作与中国角色

The Korea Peninsula at the Turning Point:International Cooperation and China's Role

笔者在分析了2018年以来朝鲜半岛各方主要关切后,提出可继续推进朝美直接对话和国际合作,中国在国际合作中责无旁贷。中国可通过稳定中朝关系,推进实质性合作;增进中韩合作,减少朝美信任赤字;凝聚中美俄共识,提升大国合作。在具体路径上,可采取"大交易"方式,使朝美就彼此关切、目标、实现路径等达成方向性协议,然后以朝鲜半岛无核化与和平机制构建的"双规制"为平台,分门别类"分阶段、同步走",逐渐解决相关问题,同时由"联合国安理会常任理事国减去美国"(即中俄英法四国)方式进行监督。

Based on the analysis of the situation of Korea peninsula since 2018,the article argues that DPRK-U.S.dialogue and international cooperation should be promoted simultaneously in which China's role is essential.China should improve the relations with DPRK through the practical cooperation and promote the cooperation with ROK in order to reduce the trust deficit between DPRK and U.S..China should also try to promote the major power cooperation by building up and consolidating the consensus with Russia and U.S..It is also argued that the way of "grand bargain"should be adopted by pushing DPRK and U.S.to reach a general agreement including concerns of each side as well as goal and the approach of solution.Then the agreement between DPRK and U.S.should be implemented this agreement by steps and issues,which is based on the dual systems of denuclearization and peace building under the supervision of all other members of United Nation security council except U.S..