构建中-俄FTA经济基础及可行性分析

The Economic Foundation for the Construction of China-Russia FTA and Its Feasibility

随着区域经济一体化的不断发展及世界格局的发展演变,中俄两国关系变得日益紧密,目前中国和俄罗斯两国关系正处于历史上最佳的时期,中国和俄罗斯两国双边贸易关系在不断加强。尽管近几年来中国和俄罗斯在能源、资本、劳动力等领域贸易合作日趋深入,但就现在来看,中俄两国在对外贸易总额中所占的比重与两国已有的国际地位、双边关系以及商业布局仍不对称,中俄两国之间存在的贸易潜力仍需进一步开发。研究在关税同盟理论,大市场理论等基础上,通过分析中俄两个国家的贸易现状以及贸易规模,得出了构建中俄FTA的经济基础以及可行性,通过计算贸易竞争力指数和贸易结合度指数分析中俄两国之间的贸易互补性和竞争力大小,最后结合“一带一路”倡议体系,提出了增强中俄FTA建立的缓冲措施以及预建一套有效的贸易争端解决机制等相关建议。

With the continual development of regional economic integration and the evolution of the global pat tern,the China and Russia relations have become increasingly close,currently reaching the best in the history while improving the bilateral trade relations between two countries.Although recent years have witnessed the deep trade cooperation between two countries in the fields of energy,capital and labor,the proportions of China and Russia in the total volume of mutual trade are still asymmetric with the currently international status,bilater al relations and commercial layouts of two countries,and the trade potentials between them still need to be fur ther developed.According to the theory of customs union and that of large market,this paper,through analyzing the current situations and scale of trade between China and Russia,concludes the economic foundation and feasi bility for constructing China-Russia FTA.The trade competitiveness index and trade integration index are calcu lated to analyze the trade complementarity and competitiveness between two countries.Along with the strategic system of Belt and Road Initiative,some suggestions are put forward to strengthen the buffer measures and estab lish a set of effective trade dispute settlement mechanism for the construction of China-Russia FTA.