余姚市2008-2018年流行性腮腺炎流行病学分析

Epidemiological analysis of mumps in Yuyao from 2008 to 2018

目的了解余姚市流行性腮腺炎发病情况,为流行性腮腺炎预防和控制提供科学依据。方法采用描述性流行病学方法,对中国传染病报告信息管理系统中2008-2018年余姚市的流行性腮腺炎病例进行分析,并建立SARIMA模型对2019年余姚市流行性腮腺炎发病趋势进行预测。结果 2008-2018年共报告流行性腮腺炎3 983例,年均发病率35. 96/10万,从2008年开始,每年发病率呈下降趋势(χ~2趋势=986. 762,P <0. 05)。发病数每年从2月份开始增加,4月份达到发病高峰,再逐渐下降,10-11月又有一小高峰,次年2月降到发病最低点。山区乡镇(鹿亭乡、大岚镇、四明山镇)年均发病率(7. 15/10万)低于平原乡镇(37. 17/10万),差异有统计学意义(χ~2=108. 072,P <0. 05)。发病主要集中在1~4岁、5~9岁、≥10岁三个年龄段,分别占总病例的21. 89%、49. 69%、17. 93%。以学生、幼托儿童、散居儿童为主,分别占总病例的48. 88%、32. 04%、11. 08%。男性年均发病率(45. 26/10万)高于女性(26. 46/10万),差异有统计学意义(χ~2=272. 288,P <0. 05)。预测2019年1月-12月余姚市流行性腮腺炎月发病数分别为10例、6例、16例、27例、26例、25例、26例、16例、17例、16例、15例、13例。发病数3月份开始上升,4-7月份维持在一个发病高峰,再平稳下降,总体略高于2018年发病数。结论 2008-2018年余姚市流行性腮腺炎年均发病率为35. 96/10万,每年发病率呈下降趋势,2014-2018年余姚市流行性腮腺炎一直处于较低的发病水平,但预测显示2019年发病数略高于2018年,应采取有效防控措施,避免疫情反弹。

Objective To understand the incidence of mumps in Yuyao,provide scientific basis for prevention and control of mumps in the future. Methods Descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the mumps cases in Yuyao from2008 to 2018 in China’s infectious disease report information management system,and SARIMA model was established to predict the incidence trend of mumps in Yuyao in 2019. Results From 2008 to 2018,3 983 cases of mumps were reported,with an average annual incidence of 35. 96/100 000. Since 2008,the annual incidence had declined( χtrend2 = 986. 762,P <0. 05). The number of the cases increased from February to April every year,and then decreased gradually. There was another small peak from October to November,and it fell to the lowest point in February next year. The average annual incidence in mountain towns( Luting Town,Dalan town and Simingshan town) was 7. 15/100 000 lower than that of plain town( 37. 17/100 000),the difference was statistically significant( χ2= 108. 072,P < 0. 05). The incidence mainly concentrated in 1-4,5-9 and ≥ 10 age groups,accounting for 21. 89%,49. 69% and 17. 93% of the total cases respectively. Students,kindergartens and scattered children accounted for 48. 88%,32. 04% and 11. 08% of the total cases respectively. The average annual incidence in male group( 45. 26/100 000) was higher than that of female( 26. 46/100 000),the difference was statistically significant( χ2= 272. 288,P < 0. 05). The monthly incidence of mumps in Yuyao from January to December2019 was predicted to be 10,6,16,27,26,25,26,16,17,16,15 and 13 cases respectively. The number of cases began to rise in March,maintained at a peak from April to July,and then decreased steadily,generally higher than that in 2018. Conclusion From 2008 to 2018,the annual incidence of mumps in Yuyao is 35. 96/100 000,and the annual incidence shows a downward trend. From 2014 to 2018,the incidence of mumps in Yuyao has been at a low level,but the forecast shows that the incidence of mumps in 2019 is higher than that in 2018,so effective prevention and control measures should be taken to avoid the rebound of the epidemic.