对外依存与中国外交的战略自主

External Dependence and Strategic Autonomy of China’s Diplomacy

改革开放四十年,中国经济得到长足发展,与此同时也带来了对外依存度偏高的风险,而经济上的对外依存与战略自主之间存在密切的相互影响关系。回顾一些大国的对外战略可以看出,相互依存直接影响对外战略,对外依存度过高会导致战略自主性的下降,从而极大缩减战略选项,甚至在一些关键节点不得不诉诸战略冒险。中国的对外依存与战略自主的关系也经历了复杂的演变过程。新中国成立后,中国一度采取"一边倒"的对外政策,在一定程度上影响了战略自主。改革开放之后,中国经济对外部市场、技术和能源的依存度不断上升,也在一定程度上限制了中国对外战略的全面自主发展。因此,中国的大国战略必须在外向与内顾、国际与国内之间保持适当的平衡,更为合理地协调对外依存与战略自主之间的关系,将全面深度改革开放与全方位外交布局紧密联系在一起。唯其如此,中国未来的大国外交才能行稳致远。

While China’s forty years’ reform and opening up has produced extraordinary economic growth,it has also increased the risk of a relatively high level of external dependence.External economic dependence and strategic autonomy are strongly correlated.A review of the foreign strategy of some major powers shows that the level of interdependence among states has a direct impact on their foreign strategies.A high level of external dependence leads to the decrease of strategic autonomy,the reduction of strategic options,and even the adoption of risky strategies at some critical junctures.China’s external dependence and strategic autonomy has undergone complicated evolution.After the founding of the People’s Republic of China,it adopted the foreign policy of"one-sidedness",which,to some extent,produced an impact on strategic autonomy.After China launched economic reform and opened up to the outside world,its dependence on external market,technologies and energy has continued to increase,which has also,to some extent,limited the full and autonomous development of China’s foreign strategy.Therefore,in developing its major power strategy,China has to strike a proper balance between the external and the internal,and between the international and the domestic,so as to well coordinate the relationship between external dependence and strategic autonomy.Only when comprehensive and in-depth reform and opening up are conducted in close association with all-directional diplomatic layout can we expect a steady and far-reaching journey of China’s major power diplomacy around the world in the future.