产业联盟与“能源诅咒”:委内瑞拉与俄罗斯的现代化“宿命”

Industrial Coalitions and “Energy Curse”:The “Destiny” of Modernization in Venezuela and Russia

古典经济学认为,能源大规模出口的财富效应有助于推动出口国的经济增长,然而20世纪70年代以来世界主要能源出口国经济增长普遍放缓甚至停滞的残酷现实表明,丰富的能源很可能并非推动经济增长的"祝福",而是拖累经济的"诅咒"。为了探讨诱使能源出口国陷入"能源诅咒"的原因及其作用机制,本文基于产业联盟理论建立了涵盖能源出口国现代化起点、政体类型、出口条件的分析框架,重点分析上述三个因素对能源产业联盟实力强弱的影响。通过对能源出口国主要政治与经济数据的定量分析以及对委内瑞拉和俄罗斯陷入"能源诅咒"的案例研究,本文发现,能源出口国的现代化起点较晚、实行威权政体、出口条件改善催生了强大的能源产业联盟,并巩固和扩大了其相较于其他产业联盟的实力差距。强大的能源产业联盟贡献了巨额税汇、提供了畸形补贴、左右了选举结果,由此诱使政府与政治家对其形成了病态的依赖,限制了其他产业的发展并最终拖累了经济增长。

Classical economics deems that the wealth effect of large-scale energy export is conducive to economic growth of exporters.But since the 1970 s,the reality of extensive slowdown or even stagnation of economic growth of the world’s major energy exporters has shown that abundant energy resources may not necessarily be a blessing for economic growth,but can be a "curse"or a drag on economy.In order to explore the cause and mechanism that induces energy exporting countries to fall into the "energy curse",this paper,based on the industrial coalition theory,establishes an analytical framework with three major factors,i.e.,the starting point of modernization,type of regime and exports conditions of energy exporting countries.The author analyzes the impact of the three factors on the strength of energy industrial coalition.Based on a quantitative analysis of energy exporters’major political and economic data and case study of"energy curse"in Venezuela and Russia,this paper finds that a relatively late start of modernization,adoption of authoritarian regime and improvements of exports conditions can bring about a powerful energy industrial coalition,and further consolidate and expand the strength gap between coalitions.Studies have shown that powerful energy industrial coalitions contribute to huge tax revenues,provide abnormal subsidies and sway election results,thereby inducing governments and politicians’unhealthy dependence on them,restricting the development of other industries and ultimately slowing economic growth.