中国经济增长之源、现有潜能及未来增长区间

The Growth Sources,Existing Potential and the Future Growth Interval in China’s Economy

基于中美日等经济体1950-2017年的投入产出数据,研究其经济增长之源,进而识别中国经济的追赶动力,并预测未来的经济增长区间。研究结果表明:物质要素积累、劳动质量提升以及潜在增长空间支撑了中国经济增长的韧性;1980-2014年间的经济增长主要得益于物质资本和TFP的贡献,贡献率分别为43. 5%和41%;人均收入水平、生产率、要素价格等与美国相距较远,但未来的经济发展仍存在较大增长空间,基于增长外推法的实证分析表明,中国在2018-2023年和2023-2028年的GDP增长率将分别落在6%~7%、5%~6%之间。

Based on the data of inputs and outputs of China,the United States,Japan and several other economies during 1950-2017,this paper examines the power of the Chinese catching up in the past through analyzing the sources of economic growth for sample economies,to predict potential economic growth interval of China. The empirical results show that the accumulation of material factors,the improvement of labor quality and the potential growth space maintain the resilience of China’s economic growth;the economic growth of China is mainly due to the"contribution"of physical capital and TFP during 1980-2014,with the contribution rate of 43. 5% and 41% respectively;as to the level of China’s per capital income,productivity,factor price and other aspects,China is far away from the United States,but there is still a large growth space for economic development in the future. Empirical analysis based on growth extrapolation indicates that China’s GDP growth rate in 2018-2023 and 2023-2028 will still maintain 6%-7% and 5%-6% respectively.