安徽省进口贸易与出口贸易关系的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of Import and Export Trade in Anhui Province

进出口贸易对于拉动地区经济增长具有重要作用,进口与出口之间往往存在一定内在联系。利用现代计量经济模型对安徽省进口贸易与出口贸易关系进行实证分析,结论认为,进口贸易是安徽省出口贸易的格兰杰原因,且在长期内两者保持均衡变动关系,在短期内虽呈现偏离但存在内在修正机制,为此提出促进安徽省进口与出口保持协调的发展政策建议。

Import and export trade plays an important role in stimulating regional economic growth, and there is often an internal relationship between import and export. This paper makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between import and export trade in Anhui Province by using modern econometric model. The conclusion is that import trade is the Granger cause of export trade in Anhui Province, and the two maintain a balanced changing relationship in the long term. Although they deviate in the short term, there is a correction mechanism in the short term. Therefore, it puts forward some policy suggestions to promote the coordinated development of import and export in Anhui Province.