混合型货币政策规则的宏观调控效应研究--基于宏观经济稳增长和金融系统防风险双重视角

Research on Macro-control Effect of Mixed Monetary Policy Rules--Based on the Dual Perspectives of Macro-economic Steady Growth and Risk Prevention of Financial System

通常,当实体经济面临下行风险时,基于货币数量的调控更有利于平抑经济波动;反之,当压力主要来自于金融系统时,基于价格的调整则收效更佳。目前,中国正面临着宏观经济稳增长和金融系统防风险的双重压力,这也使得有关数量型和价格型政策配合使用,共御经济金融风险的探讨成为了货币研究领域内的重要议题。鉴于此,本文将资产价格要素纳入至货币政策规则框架,构建了含有货币数量和利率价格的混合型货币政策规则,据此系统地对比了不同货币政策调控范式对经济下行风险和系统性金融风险的调控效果,研究表明:价格型货币政策对经济行为的调控力度最大,混合型次之,数量型最小,但纯价格型规则存在着较高的机会成本,特别是在平抑产出和资产价格波动时会引起通胀层面的不确定性,不宜用于平衡多重调控目标。相比而言,倘若对利率在混合规则中所占的权重进行调整,构建“价主量辅”式的混合型货币政策规则更有利于促进宏观经济稳增长和金融系统防风险的共同实现。

Generally,when the real economy is facing downside risks,the regulation based on money quantity is more conducive to stabilizing economic fluctuations.On the other hand,price-based adjustments work better when most of the stress comes from the financial system.At present,China is facing the dual pressure of steady macroeconomic growth and risk prevention of financial system,which makes the discussion of the combination of quantitative and price-oriented policies to protect economic and financial risks become an important topic in the field of monetary research.In view of this,this paper incorporates asset price into the framework of monetary policy rules,constructs a mixed monetary policy rule with monetary quantity and interest rate price,and systematically compares the effects of different monetary policy regulation paradigms on economic downside risks and systemic financial risks.The research shows that the price-based monetary policy has the largest regulation intensity on economic behavior,followed by the mixed monetary policy and the smallest quantitative policy.However the single price rule has a higher opportunity cost,especially in the flat output and asset price fluctuations will cause the uncertainty of inflation level.So it is not suitable for balancing multiple regulation objectives.By contrast,if we adjust the weight of interest rate in the mixed rules,price-based and quantity-supplemented mixed monetary policy rule is more conducive to promoting the macroeconomic stability and financial system risk prevention.