安徽省水资源承载力评价与预测研究

Study on Evaluation and Prediction of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Anhui Province

本研究以安徽省为研究对象,可预见的技术、经济和社会发展水平为依据,可持续发展为原则,参考现有研究成果,选择安徽省水资源承载力的主要驱动因素,运用对数函数建立单指标承载力评价模型,进而采用综合指标法建立安徽省水资源承载力评价模型,对安徽省2006-2017年水资源承载力进行评价。在此基础上,进一步筛选驱动因子,建立基于集对分析聚类的水资源承载力预测模型。结果表明,安徽省水资源承载力总体呈上升趋势;基于集对分析聚类的水资源承载力预测模型计算方法简单,预测精度较高。

Taking Anhui province as the research object,sustainable development as the principle,referring to the existing research results,the main driving factors of water resources carrying capacity in Anhui province are selected according to the predictable technical,economic and social development level as the rationale.The evaluation model of the single-index bearing capacity is established through the logarithmic function.Furthermore,the evaluation model of water resources carrying capacity in Anhui province which is used to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of Anhui province from 2006 to 2017 is established by using the comprehensive index method.On the basis of this,the driver factors are further screened,and a water resources carrying capacity prediction model based on set pair analysis cluster prediction is established.The results show that the water resources carrying capacity of Anhui province is on the rise as a whole;the calculation method of the prediction model is simple and the prediction accuracy is high.