基于改进的CREAM的LNG船卸货作业人因失误概率预测

Human Error Probability Prediction of Unloading Operation on LNG Carrier Based on Specific CREAM

为定量分析液化天然气(Liquefied Natural Gas,LNG)船卸货过程中的人因失误概率,在认知可靠性与失误分析模型(Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Model,CREAM)的基础上,通过个体因素对情景环境影响机制进行调整,构建人因失误概率预测模型。采用该模型对LNG船卸货作业人因失误概率进行量化分析,获得不同阶段的失误概率数据,为LNG船卸货作业安全提供数据支持。经检验,该模型稳定、可靠。

A specific CREAM(Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Model)for the LNG(Liquefied Natural Gas)ship unloading process is developed through adjusting the influence mechanism of the situational environment.The model is used to quantitatively analyze the failure probabilities at different stages of unloading operation on LNG carriers,which suggests the major concerns of the operation safety.