产业匹配视域下中国经济高质量发展的动力来源——基于门槛效应的实证研究

Empirical Study on the Dynamic Source of Economic High-Quality Development in China under Industry Matching:Based on Threshold Effect

基于2005—2017年中国省际面板数据,借鉴耦合协调模型测度高端服务业和先进制造业的产业匹配度,采用随机前沿模型测度经济发展质量,运用门槛回归模型探寻不同产业匹配阶段中国经济高质量发展的核心驱动。研究发现:中国高端服务业和先进制造业的产业匹配度具有较大区域差异,不同产业匹配阶段下经济高质量发展的核心驱动不同。产业匹配度越高,产业规模对经济高质量发展的促进作用越弱,当产业处于不匹配阶段或进入匹配阶段后,创新能力是经济高质量发展的重要驱动,当产业处于不匹配向匹配过渡阶段时,资本投入则是经济高质量发展的主要动力来源。

Based on provincial panel data from 2005 to 2017,measure the matching degree between high-class service industry and advanced manufacturing industry using coupling coordination model,estimate economy development quality with stochastic frontier model,and find the dynamic source of economic high-quality development in different industry matching stages based on the threshold model.The results show that the matching degrees between high-class service industry and advanced manufacturing industry are varies in different regions,and the driving factors of economic high-quality development are also different in different industry matching stage.The higher the industry matching degree is,the weaker the promotion of industry scale is.Innovative ability is the driving force,when the industries are mismatching or entering the stage of matching,but if on the transitional stage,the capital input maybe more important.