我国流通业与制造业的协同发展:价值水平、关键节点和联动趋势

An Empirical Study on the Synergetic Development of China’s Circulation Industry and Manufacturing Industry

新常态发展背景下实现流通业与制造业的协同发展,需要通过流通业引领制造业增强核心竞争力.研究主要采用灰色关联分析和协同演化模型,并建立有效量化方法来测算流通业与制造业的价值水平,探究流通业和制造业的协同发展水平、关键节点和调整趋势等,进而为产业政策提供建议与对策.研究结果显示,我国流通业与制造业之间存在较弱的协同关系;2011年是决定流通业与制造业发展的第一个关键节点,在此之后两者从协同逐步转向不协调,结构问题逐步显现;流通业与制造业的协同发展具有明显的阶段性,2014年和2017年是相对较低的两个位置,说明此时两个产业间的关联性有所回升,协同趋势差异性最小,这是产业间相互反馈和调整的结果.我国流通业需要发挥流通导向价值,提高与制造业的协同度,形成联动发展.

To realize the coordinated development of the circulation industry and the manufacturing industry under the background of the new normal development,the circulation industry needs to lead the manufacturing industry to enhance its core competitiveness.Based on this,the research mainly uses the grey correlation analysis and co-evolution model,and establish an effective quantitative method measure the development level of the circulation industry and manufacturing industry,circulation industry and manufacturing in combination with the key nodes,and to explore the synergy of circulation industry and manufacturing level and key nodes in the adjustment of industry,and provide reference for the industrial policy.The results show that there is a weak synergetic relationship between China's circulation industry and manufacturing industry.In 2011,it was the first key node that decided the development of the circulation industry and the manufacturing industry.After that,the two gradually changed from synergy to disharmony,and the structural problems gradually emerged.The adjustment of the circulation industry and the manufacturing industry has obvious stages.2014 and 2017 are the two relatively low positions,indicating that the correlation between the two industries has rebounded and the difference of collaborative trend is the smallest,which is the result of mutual feedback and adjustment among industries.China's circulation industry needs to give play to the value of circulation orientation and further realize the synergy with the manufacturing industry.