世界大变局与中美日三国战略选择

The Great Change in the World and the Strategic Choice of China,U.S.,and Japan

在世界大变局中,战后国际格局重大变化的主要标志是“世界老二”易位。苏联、日本皆不例外;21世纪以来欧盟也由盛转衰。未来国际格局可能有三种前景:1.中美两极对抗体制;2.中美竞争合作的“两极多元体制”;3.世界各大力量多元并存,构建多元一体的人类命运共同体。这要看世界潮流是走向和平多边主义还是暴力多边主义。中国实现伟大复兴后的战略选择是“济弱扶倾”,为世界可持续发展与可持续安全做贡献。日本面临的战略选择是:继续在《日本国宪法》下走和平发展道路,还是修改宪法,成为“能战国家”的一员,加入暴力强权的多边主义?坚持开放的地区主义与国际协调,还是搞排他经济集团,远交近攻,以中国为竞争对手?利用中美对立从中渔利,还是促进中美协调而避免在中美之间“选边站”?妥善处理中日两国围绕钓鱼岛归属认知争议和台湾问题,还是重走历史老路?囿于冷战思维和传统权力政治的现实主义决策逻辑,同中国搞战略对抗,还是树立共同、综合、合作、可持续安全的新安全观,与中国加强合作?这些战略选择将关乎未来30年的中日关系。

In the great changes in the world,the major change in the international system after World War Ⅱ is marked by the transfer of "the second largest country in the world". The Soviet Union and Japan are no exception. Since the 21st century,the EU has also changed from prosperity to decline.There may be three prospects in the future international pattern :1. Sino-US bipolar confrontation system;2. The "bipolar and pluralistic system" of Sino-US competition and cooperation;3. The world’s major powers coexist in diversity and build a diverse and integrated community of human destiny.This will depend on whether the world trend is towards peaceful multilateralism or violent multilateralism. After the great rejuvenation,China’s strategic choice is to "help the weak and support the need" and make contributions to the world’s sustainable development and sustainable security. Japan’s strategic choice is to continue to follow the path of peaceful development under Japan’s constitution,or amend the constitution to become a member of "a country capable of war" and join violent multilateralism? Insist on open regionalism and international coordination,or establish exclusive economic groups with China as a competitor? Is it to profit from the confrontation between China and the United States or to promote coordination between China and the United States in order to avoid "choosing sides" ? Should China and Japan properly handle the Diaoyu Islands and Taiwan issues,or should they return to the old path of history? Restricted by the Cold War thinking and the logic of traditional power politics,is it a strategic confrontation with China,or is it a new security concept of common,comprehensive,cooperative and sustainable security to strengthen cooperation with China? These strategic choices will affect Sino-Japanese relations in the next 30 years.