“一带一路”海外重大项目的地缘政治风险与应对--概念与理论构建

BRI Projects’ Geopolitical Risks: Concepts and Theorization

地缘政治风险由地缘因素引发,是国家或非国家行为体对海外特定地理空间的开发、塑造、竞争或控制造成该地区既有地缘利益结构发生变化而引发的国际政治风险。其生成机制主要包括大国间的战略竞争、海权与陆权力量的斗争、地理敏感地带引发的博弈、地缘经济竞争等。海外重大项目也会改变各种地缘因素,打破原有地缘利益结构的平衡,从而引发地缘政治风险。其背后是更深层次的地缘政治观念、思想之争,以及时代变迁所引发的时代精神、国家心态的变化。在"一带一路"建设的大背景下,地缘政治风险已对中国和平崛起和企业"走出去"构成实质性障碍,为此亟须提升地理安全意识,要客观评估地缘政治风险,从政治、经济、文化三个层面设立地缘政治风险评估标准,制定防范和管控地缘政治风险的有效策略。

Geopolitical risks refer to the international political risks triggered by "geo" factors. More specifically, they are the risks created by state or non-state actors as they explore, shape, and compete for geographic spaces. The specific triggers of geopolitical risks include great power strategic competition, competition between sea and land powers, the struggle for control over geographically sensitive zones, and geoeconomic competition. These competitions are driven by differing strategic visions, ideological orientations, economic models, and so on. In an age of growing great power competition, geopolitical risks are increasingly posing formidable obstacles to the progress of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Not only must Chinese enterprises make economic calculations, but increasingly they have to be more politically attuned in host nations. The Chinese government, on the other hand, in facilitating its enterprises’ forays into foreign lands, should also better assess the political, economic, and cultural aspects of potential geopolitical risks the Chinese enterprises may encounter and come up with more country-specific prevention and control strategies.