东盟国家视角下的美国“印太战略”

U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy: The ASEAN Perspective

特朗普政府提出的"印太战略"是美国整合印太地区进行战略布局以平衡中国影响力的地缘制衡框架。东盟国家作为联结两洋的中心地带对该战略的实施具有重要影响,其对"印太战略"的认知虽有一定共识,但同时具有相当程度的差异性。这表现为东盟国家选择加强或弱化与美国的双边和多边关系,质疑或欢迎美国加强安全介入与合作,怀疑或认可开放、互惠经济发展模式,批评或认同民主、人权、法治价值观。本文尝试建构国家层次需求与体系层次压力互动的分析路径。从对美安全与经济需求及体系压力这两个维度,可以将东盟国家对"印太战略"的认知区分为机遇、机会、机会与风险、较小风险、较大风险五种类型。东盟各国对"印太战略"认知的差异,将影响东盟内部共识的达成以及对地区机制的主导,导致东盟国家与美国关系的分化和复杂化,并为东盟国家与中国关系的发展带来机遇和挑战。

The Trump administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy is the latest U.S. attempt to integrate the Indian and Pacific Oceans as a new geostrategic area where growing competition with China will play out in the decades to come. ASEAN, the key link that connects the two oceans, will be a major factor in the progress of the strategy. The are considerable consensus and significant disagreements among ASEAN members over the nature, objective, and implications of Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy. Some have chosen to strengthen their bilateral and multilateral security relations with Washington while others prefer to keep a distance. Some have welcome deeper U.S. involvement in regional security issues while others remain doubtful. Some have embraced an open and reciprocal economic model and such Western values as democracy, human rights, and rule of law, that has long been promoted by Washington while others favor a more independent and autonomous path. Thisarticle proceeds from the intersection of international structural pressure and national imperatives to present an ASEAN perspective on Trump’s Indo-Pacific strategy. It argues that member states’ perceptions of the strategy can be classified into five categories, ranging from complete opportunity to outright risk. Differing views will make internal consensus impossible, further complicate the bloc’s relationship with the United States in general and its member states’ interactions with Washington in particular, and present new opportunities for Beijing to intensify its engagement with individual nations.