经济政策不确定性会抑制企业出口吗

Can Economic Policy Uncertainty Influence Firm Export?

本文利用2000-2006年中国工业企业数据库和海关数据库的匹配数据,基于世界主要国家(地区)的经济政策不确定性指数,实证分析了经济政策不确定性对企业出口的影响。研究结果表明,目的地经济政策不确定性的增强显著降低了中国产品出口价值量;在投资环境、社会环境、政府稳定性、行政效率和法律秩序相对不好的地区,其经济政策不确定性增加导致中国产品出口价值量大幅减少,而中国外资企业和东部地区的企业受到目的地经济政策不确定性的影响相对较小。因此,中国要积极深化与"一带一路"沿线国家的战略合作,加强与世界其他国家之间的经济政策协调,同时出口企业也要加强培养自主创新能力,切实提高自身生产率水平,从而有效应对全球经济政策不确定性增加对企业出口的影响。

Using the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index( EPUI) developed by Baker et al.( 2016),we examined how economic policy uncertainty affected firm export. We find that the economic policy uncertainty in the destination country significantly reduces the value of commodities. However,the effect is weaker for foreign-invested firms and firms in the eastern region. Besides,our results also show that the value of export products significantly reduces when the destination’s investment profiles,social environment,government stability, administrative efficiency and legal order are relatively inadequate.Therefore,to cope with the increasing economic policy uncertainty,China should actively deepen strategic cooperation with the Belt and Road countries and strengthen economic policy coordination with other countries. Meanwhile,export firms should strengthen selfdriving creation ability and improve their own productivity.