出口产品多样化对行业产出波动和绩效分布的影响研究

On Export Diversification,Industry Output Volatility and Performance Dispersion

本文通过构建出口产品多样化、产出波动和绩效分布的测算指标,利用2002-2015年的跨国企业调研数据、行业数据和出口商品数据,运用计量模型检验了出口产品多样化对行业产出波动与行业绩效分布的影响。结果表明:出口产品多样化水平的提高显著降低了行业产出波动,而在具有强比较优势的行业中,出口产品多样化对产出波动的抑制作用更为突出;行业贸易开放度越高,行业竞争程度越强,则出口产品多样化平抑行业产出波动的作用越明显;出口产品多样化水平的提高有利于促进行业内竞争,有效降低了行业绩效离散程度,而在具有比较优势的行业内,出口"自选择"效应强化了行业内的资源再配置作用,进一步降低了行业绩效离散程度;在高资本密集型行业和高贸易开放度行业中,这种促进竞争效应更加显著。

We constructed the index of export diversification, industry output volatility and performance dispersion,and empirically tested the effect of export diversification on industry output volatility and performance dispersion by using 2002-2015 transnational enterprises survey data,industry data and export commodity data. The results show that the increase in the level of export diversification significantly reduces the output volatility of industries. In industries with comparative advantage,the restraint effect of export diversification on output fluctuations is more prominent. The higher degree of trade openness and competitiveness,the stronger the effect is. Also,the increase in the level of export diversification is conducive to promoting the competition within the industry and reducing the degree of performance dispersion. Industries with comparative advantages have more obvious export "self-selection"effect,which strengthens the role of resource re-allocation within the industry and further reduces the dispersion degree of industry performance. In industries with higher capital intensive and trade openness,the competition effect is more significant. This study has important policy implications for China’s current supplyside structural reform,especially the adjustment and upgrading of the industrial structure,and the development of the market economy.