“一带一路”倡议下的互联互通对中国丝绸出口贸易的影响

Impact of Interconnection Under“the Belt and Road”Initiative on Chinas Silk Export Trade

利用2002-2017年中国与"一带一路"成员国的面板数据,就中国对"一带一路"成员国丝绸出口贸易增长的"一带一路"成员国基础设施互联互通建设的促进机制进行考察。研究发现,"一带一路"成员国的基础设施建设及其通讯、交通运输和科学技术建设,对该机制具有积极、显著、稳健的正效用,而这亦正在于目前"一带一路"成员国基础设施水平普遍低下且成为制约其与中国丝绸贸易增长的主要瓶颈;"一带一路"成员国GDP、中国或"一带一路"成员国加入WTO,亦均为该机制中仅次于基础设施效用的正向动力;中国丝绸出口贸易价格、中国与"一带一路"成员国间的地理距离,仅对该机制分别有正、负弱效用。研究结论对于正确把握并推进"一带一路"成员国基础设施互联互通建设,促进中国丝绸出口贸易可持续发展具有一定借鉴。

Promotion mechanism of infrastructure construction to interconnect"the Belt and Road"member countries on the growth of Chinas silk export trade was investigated using the panel data from China and"the Belt and Road"member countries from 2002 to 2017.It was found in this study that silk export trade was positively,significantly and steadily promoted due to infrastructure construction together with construction of communication,transportation and science and technology in"the Belt and Road"member countries,whose general low level of infrastructure are now the main bottleneck restricting the silk trade growth.Furthermore,Gross Domestic Product(GDP)of"the Belt and Road"member countries,and China or member countriesaccession to World Trade Organization(WTO)are also the important driving forces second to infrastructure construction.Whereas,silk price in Chinas silk export trade and geographical distance between China and"the Belt and Road"member countries have little positive and negative effects.In conclusion,the results will facilitate the infrastructure construction to interconnect"the Belt and Road"member countries and promote the sustainable development of Chinas silk export trade.