美国退出伊核协议后海湾地区安全形势:分析与评估

An Analysis and Evaluation of the Gulf Region after the US Withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Agreement

美国宣布退出伊核协议后,伊核协议的存续与海湾地区的安全形势成为多方关注的焦点。美国退出伊核协议是其战略转向的必然选择,也是"美国优先"战略原则的具体表现。美国重启对伊制裁打击了伊朗的国际地位,直接影响到伊朗国内政治,使温和派鲁哈尼政府面临着来自保守派的政治压力。伊朗在应对美国制裁时,仍有维护伊核协议和制造地区冲突双重选择。美伊对抗升级后核扩散、霍尔木兹海峡通行权和难民潮是地区安全的三大威胁。海湾阿拉伯国家在制裁伊朗方面与美国存有共同目标,但无法承担陷入长期地区冲突的后果,因此既支持美国制裁伊朗,又在寻求保障周边安全的途径。伊核协议面临失效风险,但美伊爆发直接冲突可能性不大,海湾阿拉伯国家仍在寻求政治解决方案。

After the United States announced its withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear agreement(Joint Plan of Action),the survival of the Iranian nuclear agreement and the security situation in the Gulf region have attracted a great deal of attention.The US withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear agreement is an inevitable choice for its strategic transform and an inevitable result of the"American first"strategic principle.The US's resumption of sanctions against Iran has hit its international status,directly affecting Iran's domestic politics,and putting the moderate Rohani government under political pressure from conservatives.Responding to US sanctions,Iran still has the two choices:maintaining the Iranian nuclear agreement and creating regional conflicts.The three major threats to regional security with escalation of the US-Iran confrontation are the nuclear proliferation,the Strait of Hormuz and the refugees.The Gulf Arab countries have common goals with the United States in sanctioning Iran,but they cannot bear the consequences of long-term regional conflicts.Therefore,they support the United States in sanctioning Iran and seeking ways to protect the surrounding security.The Iranian nuclear agreement is facing the risk of failure.There is little posibility of breaking the direct conflict between the US and Iran,and The Gulf Arab countries are still seeking political solutions.