基于能值分析的绵阳市城市生态经济系统健康评价

Health evaluation of urban ecological economic system in Mianyang city based on emergy analysis

基于能值分析理论构建了城市生态经济系统健康评价指标,用能值分析方法统一度量能量流、物质流、货币流以及人口流之间的关系并进行定量分析。从时空角度评价了绵阳市城市生态经济系统健康状况及其变化趋势,然后提出适合绵阳市生态经济系统可持续发展的建议和对策。结果表明,2009-2016年,绵阳市经济快速发展,综合实力显著增强。能值投资率及电力能值比都在逐年增加,而净能值产出率持续减少,2016年同比2009年降低了40%。系统内环境压力不断增大,环境负荷率由1.52上升到2.39,EISD由6.23下降到4.68,EUEHI呈先上升后减小再上升的变化趋势。系统的可持续发展能力正在逐渐减弱,且绵阳市的健康能力表现出不稳定的状态。为了维护绵阳市生态经济系统的可持续发展能力和健康指数,未来需要进一步优化产业结构,提高资源能值利用率;大力发展高新产业,降低环境负荷;转变生态经济发展模式,实现城市健康与生态环境的和谐发展。

Based on emergy analysis theory, a health evaluation index for urban eco-economic systems is constructed. The emergy analysis method is used to uniformly measure the relationship between energy flow, material flow, currency flow, and population flow and perform quantitative analysis. From the perspective of time and space, the health status and changes of the urban eco-economic system in Mianyang city were evaluated, and then suggestions and countermeasures suitable for the sustainable development of the eco-economic system in Mianyang city were put forward. The results show that from 2009 to 2016, Mianyang city’s economy developed rapidly and its comprehensive strength increased significantly. Both the emergy investment rate and the power emergy ratio have been increasing year by year, while the net emergy output rate has continued to decrease, with a year-on-year decrease of 40% in 2016. The environmental pressure in the system is constantly increasing,the environmental load rate has increased from 1.52 to 2.39, the EISD has decreased from 6.23 to 4.68, and the EUEHI has a trend of rising first, then decreasing and then rising. The sustainable development capacity of the system is gradually weakening, and the health capacity of Mianyang city shows an unstable state. In order to maintain the sustainable development ability and health index of Mianyang’s eco-economic system, it is necessary to further optimize the industrial structure in the future, improve the utilization of energy value of the resources;vigorously develop high-tech industries, reduce environmental load;change the model of eco-economic development, and realize the harmonious development of urban health and ecological environment.