农牧民生产生活困难诉求的影响因素研究--基于二元Logistic回归模型的实证分析

A study on the influencing factors of farmers and herdsmen’s demands for production and life difficulties:An empirical analysis based on the binary logistic regression model

基于新疆和田地区于田县62个村的280位农牧民的问卷调查数据,构建二元Logistic模型分析于田县农牧民生产生活出现困难诉求的影响因素,探讨进一步解决农牧民生产生活困难的对策与建议。结果显示,婚姻状况、饲料是否充足、参加培训的次数、住房条件等变量对农牧民是否存在生产生活困难诉求的正向影响显著;家庭人数、年收入是否稳定、主要收入来源、牲畜家禽的作用、农产品销售是否顺利、是否有农牧业机械对农牧民是否存在生产生活困难诉求的负向影响显著。为此,提出了解放劳动力、加强农牧民技术培训、拓宽农产品销售渠道、完善农牧区基础设施建设、完善基层医疗卫生服务体系等对策建议。

Based on the questionnaire survey data of 280 farmers and herdsmen in 62 villages in Yutian county, Hetian district,Xinjiang, a binary logistic model was constructed to analyze the influencing factors of farmers’ and herdsmen’s demands in production and life and explore the countermeasures and suggestions to further solve the production and living difficulties of farmers and herdsmen. The results show that the variables such as marital status, adequacy of feed, number of training sessions, and housing safety have a significant positive impact on whether farmers and herdsmen have difficulties in production and life. The number of households, whether the annual income is stable, the main source of income, the role of livestock and poultry,whether the sales of agricultural products are smooth, and whether there are agricultural and pastoral machinery have a significant negative impact on whether farmers and herdsmen have difficulties in production and life. Therefore, countermeasures and suggestions are proposed to liberate the labor force, strengthen the technical training of farmers and herdsmen, expand the sales channels of agricultural products, improve the infrastructure construction of agricultural and pastoral areas, and improve the basic medical and health service system.