煤矿水害风险量化评价方法

Quantitative evaluation method of water hazard risk in coal mine

为提高煤矿防治水管理水平,预防和消除矿井水害,在层次分析法的基础上建立中性值作为参照对象对矿井水害风险进行实时评判的方法。根据《煤矿防治水细则》建立以矿井水文地质类型、矿井涌水量标准分数、突水预兆、采掘面位置、探水结果为准则层的层次结构模型,并对各评价指标赋权。依据制定的水害风险评价指标的评分细则和监测监控数据并结合其权重得到水害评价总得分。通过总得分与中性参照分数比较得出预测结果:水害评价总得分大于中性参照分数,证明水害的威胁小,分数越高越安全;反之则水害的威胁较大,分数越低越危险,这时需要加强防治水的力度,令评价分数管控大于中性参照分数。这种方法依赖于井下监测监控数据进行量化评价,能实时、客观、全面且准确地反映煤矿水害的风险情况。

In order to improve the management level of water prevention and control in the coal mines,thus prevent and eliminate the mine water hazard,a neutral value was established as a reference object on the basis of AHP to conduct the real-time evaluation of mine water hazard risk.According to the"Detailed Rules for Coal Mine Water Prevention and Control",a hierarchical structure model was established,which took the mine hydrogeological type,mine water inflow standard score,water inrush sign,mining face position and water exploration results as the principle layers,and the weighting of each evaluation index was conducted.The total score of water hazard evaluation was obtained according to the scoring rules of the established evaluation indexes of water hazard risk and monitoring data,as well as combining with their weights.The prediction results were obtained through comparing the total score with the neutral reference score,which showed that when the total score of water hazard evaluation was greater than the neutral reference score,it proved that the threat of water hazard was small,and the safety increased with the increase of the score.On the contrary,the threat of water hazard was greater,and the risk increased with the decrease of the score.At this time,it was necessary to strengthen the prevention and control of water,so that the evaluation score was controlled to be greater than the neutral reference score.This method can conduct the quantitative evaluation based on the underground monitoring data,thus it can reflect the risk of coal mine water hazard in real time,objectively,comprehensively and accurately.