新常态下财政支出结构对经济发展质量的影响效应——基于空间杜宾模型的时空异质性研究

Influence and Effects of the Composition of Fiscal Expenditure on Economic Development Quality under the New Normal——A Spatial-Temporal Heterogeneity Analysis Based on the Spatial Durbin Model

新常态下,财政支出的结构性调整是主导经济协调发展新机制的重要经济手段。通过对经济发展质量进行多维度刻画,运用我国30个省份(除西藏外)2007—2016年的面板数据,实证研究了财政支出结构作用于经济发展质量的影响效应。结果表明:第一,一般公共服务支出以及文化体育与传媒支出对经济发展质量无显著影响,增加教育支出、科学技术支出和农林水事务支出对经济发展质量有显著促进作用,但医疗卫生支出以及社会保障和就业支出规模的扩大不利于经济发展质量的提升;第二,财政支出对经济质量的影响呈现时空异质性,不同区域、不同经济阶段的财政支出对经济发展质量的作用方向和程度存在差异。因此,要以各项财政支出对经济发展质量的影响程度和方向为依据,来进行财政支出结构的优化,加快转变调控思路,即在支出总量控制的基础上进一步发挥支出结构调整的优势。

Under the new normal,the structural adjustment of fiscal expenditure is an important economic instrument that dominates the new mechanism of coordinated economic development.In this paper,based on the panel data of 30 provinces(excluding Tibet)from 2007 to 2016 in China,the index of economic development quality is measured,and then the impact of fiscal expenditure structure on economic development quality is studied.Then there are several empirical results demonstrated below.First of all,the expenditure of general public services and cultural undertakings have no significant impact on economic development quality,while increasing spending of education,science and technology,as well as agricultural affairs would promote it.However,expanding expenditure of medical services or social security is not conducive to the improvement of economic development quality.Moreover,further robust testing firmly supports the above conclusions.Secondly,the impact of fiscal expenditure on economic development quality presents spatial and temporal heterogeneity.Therefore,it is necessary to optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure on the basis of the degree and direction of the impact of various fiscal expenditure on economic development quality,and to accelerate the transformation of regulation and control ideas,that is,to further give full play to the advantages of expenditure structure adjustment building on total expenditure control.