普惠金融是否扩大了银行风险?——基于我国城商行和农商行的经验证据

Does Inclusive Finance Raise Bank Risks?Empirical Evidence Based on City Commercial Banks and Rural Commercial Banks in China

本文采用2006-2016年我国城市商业银行和农村商业银行面板数据,通过宏观金融数据构建我国普惠金融指数,从微观层面探究了普惠金融对我国商业银行风险水平的影响。结果发现:普惠金融的正效应要显著大于其负效应,普惠金融的发展能够降低我国商业银行的风险。这种影响存在明显的外部环境差异:良好的法治环境、市场环境、信用环境与经济环境能够增强普惠金融对银行稳定的积极作用,相反,外部环境较差会增大普惠金融的负效应。因此,在推动普惠金融建设时,应该以完善社会法律体系、市场体系和信用体系前提,注意区域经济发展差异所产生的不同效果,避免一刀切的普惠金融政策,从而实现普惠金融与金融稳定的双向目标。

In this paper,the panel data of China's urban commercial banks and rural commercial banks from 2006 to 2016 is used to construct an inclusive financial index through macro financial data.For the first time,the impact of inclusive financial on the risks of commercial banks is studied in China.It is found that the positive effect of inclusive finance is significantly greater than its negative effect,and the development of inclusive finance can reduce the risks of commercial banks.There are eminent external environmental differences in this kind of influence:a good rule of law environment,market environment,credit environment and economic environment can enhance the positive effect of inclusive finance on bank stability.On the contrary,poor external environment will worsen the negative impact of inclusive finance.Therefore,when constructing inclusive finance,it is imperative to improve the social legal system,the market system and the credit system as the precondition,pay attention to the different effects of differences in regional economic development,and avoid a one-size-fits-all financial policy,thus helping stabilize inclusive finance and finance.