基于FAHP与D-S证据理论的地铁PPP项目绩效评价

Performance Evaluation of Subway PPP Project Based on FAHP and D-S Evidence Theory

为解决我国地铁PPP项目绩效监督效率低下、实践中缺乏相关考核体系的问题,采用D-S证据理论模型对其绩效评价进行研究。以利益多方的绩效目标为切入点,借助PSR(压力–状态–响应)理论模型系统地分析绩效影响因素之间的关联性,并从项目全寿命周期视角构建地铁PPP项目绩效评价指标体系;引入D-S证据理论模型并辅以FAHP法对绩效指标赋权,构建基于FAHP与D-S证据理论的地铁PPP项目绩效评价模型,确定绩效等级;以X市地铁1号线PPP项目为例,进行证据信息融合,测度绩效水平,验证该模型的科学合理性。绩效评价结果表明:此项目综合绩效评价等级为Ⅰ级,绩效状况优秀,主要绩效影响因素为合理的定价及补贴机制、项目成本控制情况、私营部门收益,为绩效监督与评价指明方向。

In order to solve the problems of inefficient performance monitoring of PPP projects in China and lack of relevant assessment system in practice,D-S evidence theory model is used to study its performance evaluation.Taking the multi-stakeholder performance goal as the entry point,the PSR(pressure-state-response)theoretical model is used to systematically analyze the correlation between performance influencing factors,and construct the performance evaluation index system of subway PPP project from the perspective of project life cycle.D-S evidence theory model is supplemented by FAHP method to weight performance indicators,and the performance evaluation model of subway PPP project based on FAHP and D-S evidence theory is constructed to determine the performance level.The PPP project of X city subway line 1 is taken as an example to carry out evidence information fusion,measure the performance level,and verify the scientific rationality of the model.The performance evaluation results show that the comprehensive performance evaluation level of this project is Grade I,and the performance status is excellent.The main performance influencing factors are reasonable pricing and subsidy mechanism,project cost control,and private sector income,which indicates the direction for performance supervision and evaluation.