重庆市城镇化进程与物流产业发展影响关系研究

Study on the relationship between the urbanization process and the development of logistics industry in Chongqing

运用VAR模型,对重庆市1997—2018年的物流产业与城镇化的相关数据进行实证分析。结果显示:物流产业与非农就业比、非农产值比之间存在长期协整关系;物流产业与非农就业比存在双向的影响关系;非农就业比与非农产值比对物流产业发展不是直接的影响关系,而是在长期影响中间接产生作用;中长期看非农就业比是物流产业发展的主要贡献因素。根据实证分析结论提出推动城镇化进程与物流产业发展的相关建议。

VAR model is used for analyzing the data of Chongqing’s logistics industry and urbanization from 1997 to 2018.The results show that there is a long-term co-integration relationship among the logistics industry,the non-agricultural employment ratio and the ratio of non-agricultural output value,the logistics industry and the non-agricultural employment ratio affect each other,the impact of non-agricultural employment ratio and the ratio non-agricultural output value are indirect to the logistics industry in the long term.The non-agricultural employment ratio is the main contributor to the development of logistics industry.According to the conclusion of empirical analysis,some suggestions to promote the development of logistics industry and urbanization process are put forward.