人力资本贡献与中国经济增长的可持续性

Human Capital Contribution and Potential ofLong-term Economic Growth in China

本文通过分析人力资本的“资本”内涵,同时针对人力资本核算中基期存量和折旧等几个关键性基础指标进行理论研究和数据分析,重新估算中国人力资本存量指标。在此基础上,本文重新估算并分解全要素生产率以及人力资本对经济增长的贡献。研究结果表明1978-2017年中国纯粹技术进步对增长贡献并不显著,经济增长主要来自要素贡献。人力资本对增长贡献率为10.8%,人力资本进步对增长贡献显著。但是全要素生产率贡献率过低,导致技术进步和人力资本的联合贡献率转低,加起来为12%,说明中国与以技术进步和人力资本积累为主的创新型增长模式存在差距,如何保证增长可持续性值得关注。

This paper re-estimates the Chinese human capital stock from the theoretical research and analysis of data obtained from several key indices,such as base period stock and depreciation in human capital accounting etc.,in contrast to the simple hypotheses formulated in traditional papers.On this basis,the paper estimates the consequences of capital,human capital,TFP and traditional labour force,finding that China's economic growth mainly follows a factor-based pattern,which is generally due to the combined contribution of traditional capital and labour input versus human capital and technological progress.Hence,the consequences derived from the Chinese human capital stock and TFP are not significant,and therefore China's long-term growth potential is a problem.