“双支柱调控”与宏观经济“稳定器”的效应检验——基于多部门DSGE的比较分析

Inspection of Effect on"Dual-pillar Regulation"and Macroeconomic"Stabilizers":an Empirical Test based on a Multi-sector DSGE Model

本文从实体经济可持续稳定发展视角,建立了多部门动态随机一般均衡模型,研究传统的单纯使用货币政策的"单支柱调控"与近年来加入宏观审慎管理的"双支柱调控"的宏观经济调节框架下,主要经济变量对资本流动、利率、技术等相关冲击下的反应程度,并进行福利损失比较,以此检验宏观审慎政策对宏观经济的"稳定器"作用。研究发现,引入宏观审慎管理实施"双支柱调控"后,对实体经济发展政策效应相对温和,既能够达到一定的宏观政策目标,又能够平抑政策传导波动,显示出宏观审慎作为宏观经济"稳定器"的作用。而单纯使用货币政策的"单支柱调控"背景下,在宏观经济过快上行方面,往往容易发挥比较显著的政策作用,但同时也非常猛烈;但应对经济下行则政策效应非常有限,甚至在一个相对长的区间趋于无效。福利损失分析结果显示,从发展可持续的视角出发,"双支柱调控"下的福利损失也显著低于单纯货币政策条件下的福利损失,体现了宏观审慎"稳定器"可以在一定程度上弥补消费者因经济波动而损失的福利。

In this paper,from the perspective of sustainable and stable development of real economy,a multi-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is established and used to study the response of main economic variables to capital flow,interest rate,technology and other related shocks is compared with welfare loss to test the effect of macro-prudential policy on macroeconomic"stabilizer",in the framework of the traditional"single-pillar regulation"of monetary policy and the"double-pillar regulation"of macro-prudential management that appeared in recent years,.The study found that after the introduction of macro-prudential management and the implementation of"two-pillar regulation and control",the policy effect on the development of the real economy is relatively moderate,which not only can achieve certain macro-policy objectives,but also can smooth the fluctuation of policy transmission,shows the role of macro-prudential as a macroeconomic"stabilizer".However,in the context of"single-pillar adjustment and control"of monetary policy alone,it is often easy to play a relatively significant role in macro-economic over-rapid upward movement,but at the same time it is also very vigorous;however,the policy effect in dealing with economic downturns is very limited,even tends to be ineffective over a relatively long interval.The analysis of welfare loss shows that from the perspective of sustainable development,the welfare loss of"two-pillar regulation"is also significantly lower than that of simple monetary policy,reflecting the loss of consumer welfare can be made up by the macro-prudential"stabilizer"due to economic fluctuations in a certain degree.