供给侧生产端变化对中国粮食安全的影响研究

The Impact of Production-side Changes in Grain Supply on China’s Food Security

在“谷物基本自给、口粮绝对安全”的粮食安全战略背景下,粮食供给侧生产端对于保障中国粮食安全起到关键性作用。近年来,随着城镇化和农业现代化的推进,新型农业经营主体和土地规模化经营快速发展,粮食生产在质量效益和专业化水平不断提高的同时,其土地生产效率的提高和市场风险的防范面临挑战;粮食生产成本的攀升和比较收益的下降,使农业支持家庭生计的功能不断弱化,导致农户种粮意愿普遍降低;居民食物消费结构升级引致种植结构调整,使保障口粮绝对安全的政策成本上升。粮食生产主体结构与行为、生产成本与比较收益、供需匹配关系等生产端的重要变化,对粮食供给能力进而对国家粮食安全产生重要影响。为此,需要优化粮食安全目标,合理协调“保产量”与“优结构”的关系;完善价格激励机制,以需求升级为导向优化生产结构;优化收储调控机制,增强粮食安全风险应对能力;多举措提高农户种粮和地方政府发展粮食的积极性的同时充分利用国外资源和国际市场。

Under the background of food security strategy of“basic self-sufficiency of grain and absolute safety of grain ration”,the production-side of grain supply plays a decisive role in ensuring China’s food security.In recent years,with the advancement of urbanization and agricultural modernization,new types of agricultural operators have been emerging and large-scale land management has been developing rapidly.While the quality and specialization level of grain production are constantly improving,the improvement of land production efficiency and the prevention of market risk are facing challenges.Owing to the co-existence of the rising cost of grain production and the decline in prices,the function of agriculture to support farmers’livelihood is weakening.As a result,farmers’willingness to grow grain is generally reduced.The upgrading of residents’food consumption structure leads to the adjustment of planting structure,which increases the policy cost of ensuring the absolute safety of rations.The important changes in the main structure and behavior of grain production,production cost and comparative income,as well as the matching relationship between supply and demand have an important impact on grain supply capacity and national food security.Therefore,it is necessary to take measures to ensure food security.Firstly,it is important to optimize the goal of food security,coordinating the relationship between“maintaining output”and“optimizing structure”in a suitable manner.Secondly,it is imperative to improve the price incentive mechanism and optimize the production structure based on demand upgrading.Thirdly,there is a need to improve the mechanism of regulation and control of storage and collection of grain and increase ability to deal with food security risks.Fourthly,multiple measures should be taken to improve the enthusiasm of farmers and local governments to grow grain and develop the grain industry while making full use of foreign resources and international markets.