中美经贸摩擦背景下的中国经济

China’s economy under the background of Sino US economic and trade frictions

对于经济形势的分析和宏观政策的把握在当下的中国,特别是在中美经贸摩擦的背景下,遇到了前所未有的挑战。各种不确定因素被叠加在确定性因素之上,交互作用,增加了经济发展的复杂性。对各级领导干部来说,经济形势分析和宏观政策的把握,须在确定性因素和不确定性因素两个线索上同时作战。然而,如何将把两个方面的因素、两个方面的线索区分开来是当前遇到的一个最棘手的问题。新形势下,应当更加注重坚持正确的方法论,要透过现象看本质,在事业全局和发展大势中抓住主要矛盾,盯住政策主线。伴随着中美经贸摩擦态势的演变,中央决策层对于经济形势的判断和对于经济工作的部署一直在调整。目前已经进入"以供给侧结构性改革的办法稳需求"的新阶段。这意味着对逆周期调节和供给侧结构性改革之间的关系有了新的认识,供给侧结构性改革主线贯穿于强化逆周期调节过程之中,坚持高质量发展是一个不以人的意志为转移的客观规律。在经济运行上从"有没有"转向"优不优"、在发展理念上有规模速度转向质量和效益、在政策主线上由需求管理转向供给侧结构性改革必然成为长期的发展方向。面对中美经贸摩擦,应当坚持双维视角看问题,既要分析老问题,又要重视新矛盾;既不可顾此失彼,又不可平均使力,促进高质量发展、推动供给侧结构性改革将是长期的主题。2019年我国积极财政政策的实践,无论是财政赤字的增列、税费制度的改革还是政府投资的扩大均与高质量发展和供给侧结构性改革紧密关联。这一典型实例再次说明高质量发展是当前经济工作的"牛鼻子",各级领导干部要用匹配高质量发展要求的理念、思想、战略以及话语体系,看待和讨论当前的政策主线。

The analysis of the economic situation and the grasp of macro policies in China,especially in the context of Sino US economic and trade frictions,have encountered unprecedented challenges. Many kinds of certain and uncertain factors superimpose and act each other,which increase the complexity of economic development.leaders at all levels have to consider both certain and uncertain clues in order to analyse the economic situation and grasp the macro policies.However,how to distinguish the two factors and clues is the most difficult problem.Under the new situation,we should pay more attention to the correct methodology,find the essence through the phenomenon,grasp the main contradictions in the overall situation and development trend,and focus on the main line of policy.The central decision-makers’ judgment and decision have been adjusted with the change of Sino US economic and trade frictions.At present,it has entered a new stage of "stabilizing demand with supply side structural reform".This means a new knowledge of the relationship between counter cyclical regulation and supply side structural reform. The main line of supply side structural reform runs through the process of strengthening countercyclical regulation.Adhering to high-quality development is an objective law independent of our will.It is bound to be a long-term development direction to shift from"have or not have"to"good or not good"in terms of economic operation,to shift from scale and speed to quality and efficiency in terms of development concept,and to shift from demand management to supply side structural reform in terms of major policy.Faced with the Sino US economic and trade frictions,we should adhere to a two-dimensional perspective to analyze the old and new problems at the same time.We can not care for this and lose that,nor can we use force equally. It is a long-term theme to promote high-quality development and supply side structural reform.In 2019,the practice of China’s active fiscal policy,no matter the increase of fiscal deficit,the reform of tax system or the expansion of government investment,is closely related to the high-quality development and supply side structural reform.This typical example once again shows that high-quality development is the "bull’s nose"of current economic work.Leaders at all levels should view and discuss the main line of current policies with ideas, thoughts, strategies and discourse systems that match the requirements of high-quality development.