中美贸易摩擦背景下我国外汇储备变化对“一带一路”地区OFDI的影响

Impact of Changes in Foreign Exchange Reserves on OFDI in the "One Belt and One Road" Area under the Context of Sino-US Trade Friction

中美贸易摩擦具有长期性和复杂性。受中美贸易摩擦的影响,在短期,中国货物贸易顺差的收缩将使外汇储备增长承受下行压力;同时,由于金融安全储备需求提升,中国对"一带一路"地区的OFDI流量会出现短期的增长停滞甚至下降。从中长期来看,国家利益储备需求将成为外汇储备需求的主导;同时,由于"一带一路"投融资机制的完善和人民币国际化的推进,中国对"一带一路"地区的OFDI受外汇储备的约束将逐渐降低。推进"一带一路"建设对于应对中美贸易摩擦具有重要的战略意义,中国应在坚持底线的基础上,引导中美关系良性转型。在中长期,中国应加快外汇储备管理优化改革、推进人民币国际化进程和"一带一路"投融资机制多元化建设,逐步降低"一带一路"投资对外汇储备的依赖。

The trade friction between China and the United States is long-lasting and complex.Under its influence,the contraction of China’ s goods trade surplus will slow down the growth of foreign exchange reserves.At the same time,because of the increasing demand for financial security reserves,China’ s OFDI in the "One Belt and One Road" area will be subjected to a growth stagnation or even decrease in the short term.In the medium and long term,the demand for national interest reserves will become the dominant demand of foreign exchange reserves.At the same time,due to the improvement of the "One Belt and One Road" investment and financing mechanism,and the promotion of RMB internationalization,foreign exchange reserves restrictions on OFDI will gradually decrease.Pushing forward "the One Belt and One Road Initiative" is of great strategic significance for dealing with Sino-US trade friction.China should guide the healthy transformation of Sino-US friction on the basis of maintaining the principle baseline.In the medium and long term,China should optimize the management of foreign exchange reserves,promote the process of RMB internationalization,and diversify the investment and finance mechanism of "One Belt and One Road",and gradually reduce the dependence of OFDI on foreign exchange reserves in "One Belt and One Road" area.