货币政策、产业结构升级与区域经济增长

Monetary Policy,Industrial Structure Upgrading and Regional Economic Growth

货币政策对产业结构的影响会因时间、地域等差异,产生不同的调控效果。本文构建了带有随机波动率的时变因子扩展向量自回归模型(SV-TVP-FAVAR Model),应用该模型研究了价格型和数量型货币政策对中国内陆八大经济区的产业结构优化效应。结果表明:货币政策调控对我国产业结构优化具有显著性影响,适度紧缩的价格型货币政策有利于区域产业结构升级,东部沿海综合经济区、南部沿海经济区及大西北综合经济区对价格型货币政策调控更为敏感;其次,虽然对于大部分经济区而言,紧缩的数量型货币政策能够较好地引导地区产业结构升级,但对于东北综合经济区和大西南综合经济区,适度宽松的数量型货币政策则更有利于产业结构升级;总体来看,相比数量型货币政策工具,价格型货币政策工具对产业结构升级的作用持续时间更长,但二者长期效应都不显著,针对中国不同经济区的差异化特征,灵活使用货币政策,更有利于产业结构优化升级,促进区域经济长期稳定增长。

Monetary policy impact on industrial structure will have different regulatory effects due to differences in time and region.In the paper,a time-varying factor extended vector autoregressive model with stochastic volatility(SV-TVPFAVAR Model)is constructed.The model is used to study the industrial structure optimization of price and quantity monetary policies in eight economic regions of Chinese inland.The results show that the regulation of monetary policy has a significant impact on the optimization of China’s industrial structure.The moderately tight price monetary policy is conducive to regional industrial structure upgrading.The eastern coastal comprehensive economic zone,the southern coastal economic zone and the greater northwest comprehensive economic zone are more sensitive in price-based regulation.Second,although for most economic zones,tight quantitative monetary policy can better guide the regional industrial structure to upgrade,for the northeast comprehensive economic zone and the greater southwest comprehensive economic zone,moderate tight monetary policy is more conducive to upgrade industrial structure.Generally speaking,compared with the quantitative monetary policy tools,effect of price-based monetary policy on upgrading of industrial structure lasts longer.However,neither effect is significant.In China,different characteristics of the economic zone and the flexible using of monetary policy are more conductive to optimize and upgrade industrial structure and promote the long-term stable growth of the regional economy.