一种滑坡堰塞坝稳定性的快速评估模型

A rapid evaluation model of the stability of landslide dam

通过搜集110个国内外滑坡堰塞湖的几何形态参数和溃决时间,运用相关性分析、偏相关性分析和正态分布检验,得到87组相关系数小于0.6的自变量组合。基于Fisher判别分析,通过特征值和交叉验证选择出分类能力较强的4组自变量组合。在此基础上,对这4组组合分别建立Fisher判别模型和逻辑回归模型,绘制ROC曲线,选择出最佳的稳定性评估模型。结果显示:影响堰塞坝稳定性的几何形态参数依次为堰塞坝坝高、体积、堰塞湖库容和湖水面积。采用唐家山堰塞坝、红石岩堰塞坝和木鱼镇堰塞坝3个实际案例,验证了评估模型的有效性。该研究可为滑坡堰塞坝应急抢险提供一定的实践指导。

According to the geometric parameters and breach time of the 110 domestic and abroad landslide dams,87 combination groups of independent variables with correlation coefficient less than 0.6 were obtained by using correlation analysis,partial correlation analysis and normal distribution tests.Based on Fisher's discriminant analysis,four combinations of the independent variables with strong classification ability was selected through eigenvalue and cross-validation.On this basis,the Fisher's discriminant models and the logistic regression models are established for the four groups,and the ROC curve is drawn to select the optimal stability evaluation model.The results showed that the geometric parameters affecting the stability of landslide dam are dam height,dam volume,storage capacity and impounding water area of the barrier lake.Finally,three practical cases,Tangjiashan dam,Hongshiyan dam and Muyuzhen dam,were used to verify the validity of the proposed model.The study can provide a certain practical guidance for emergency rescue of landslide dams.