雄安新区对京津冀城市群低碳协同发展促进作用预评估

Pre-evaluation of the Role of Xiongan New District in the Low Carbon Synergy Development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration

以低碳经济联系强度模型和多中心源辐射效应叠加模型开发为基础,以分维值测算和GIS空间分析及比较为量化评估工具,采用反现实的研究方法(假设雄安新区没有建立是一种情景),通过比较京津冀城市群在2018-2030年有雄安新区和没有雄安新区两种不同情景下的低碳经济辐射情况,预评估雄安新区的建立对京津冀城市群低碳协同发展的促进作用。结果显示:①如果不建立雄安新区,京津冀城市群的梯度断档问题有加重之趋势;②雄安新区的建立,可以有效促进中间层级城市的快速成长,解决城市群的梯度断档问题,从而改善京津冀城市群西南部和东北部低碳经济联系强度的空间分布;③雄安新区的建立能够有效促进京津冀城市群低碳经济联系强度分维值的提高,而且这种促进作用在2025年之后随着时间的推移会越来越显著,有利于城市群整体的低碳协同发展。

Based on the development of Low Carbon economic connection intensity model and multi-source radiation effect superposition model,taking fractal dimension calculation and comparison and GIS spatial analysis as quantitative evaluation tools,the promotion effect of the establishment of Xiongan New District on the Low Carbon coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration is evaluated by applying anti-reality research methods which suppose a scenario is that Xiongan New District has not been established.By comparing the Low Carbon economic radiation of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration under two different scenarios(with and without Xiongan New District)in 2018-2030,the following conclusions can be drawn:1)If Xiongan New District is not established,the problem of gradient outage in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration will be aggravated;2)The establishment of Xiongan New District can effectively promote the rapid growth of middle-level cities and solve the problem of gradient outage of urban agglomeration,which will improve the spatial distribution of Low Carbon economic linkages in the southwest and northeast of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration;3)The establishment of Xiongan New District can effectively promote the fractal dimension of Low Carbon economic linkages in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration,and this promotion effect will become more and more significant after 2025,which is conducive to the overall Low Carbon coordinated development of urban agglomeration.