河南省新冠肺炎疫情时空扩散特征与人口流动风险评估--基于1243例病例报告的分析

The Spatio-Temporal Spread Characteristics of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia and Risk Assessment Based on Population Movement in Henan Province:Analysis of 1243 Individual Case Reports

文章搜集了河南省1243例新冠肺炎的病例数据,利用探索性数据分析方法,在区县尺度上从病例总量、输入性扩散性病例数量以及扩散比三个维度探究了河南省新冠肺炎疫情的时空扩散过程,进一步基于人口流动评估了各个区县春节过后疫情风险。研究发现,河南省新冠病毒疫情经历了发生、迅速发展和趋于稳定的发展过程,目前病例总量和扩散比的"S"型曲线已经呈现;病例总量、输入性扩散性病例均呈现显著的空间集聚特征,其中病例总量与输入性扩散性病例高-高集聚区主要分布于信阳大部分区县,南阳、驻马店、郑州部分区县,遵循与湖北省地理邻近和网络邻近的特征;扩散比较高的区县为分散分布,且大多为家庭式集聚性扩散;在人口流动的影响下,信阳市主城区及周边县,安阳、郑州、许昌、平顶山等市主城区,人口流入和流出所引致的相对风险较高。随着疫情的发展,需要及时评估疫情动态,并兼顾人口流动风险进行动态疫情风险划分,以便及时有效地指导区域疫情的防控与经济社会秩序恢复。

Based on 1243 novel coronavirus pneumonia individual cases collected in Henan province and a suite of exploratory spatial data analysis techniques,this paper analyzed the spatio-temporal spread characteristics of the 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia at the county spatial scale,focusing on total counts,imported cases from Wuhan or Hubei province,and local diffusion/spread ratio.We further evaluated the risk of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia faced by each county after the Spring Festival based on population movement.The epidemic situation of COVID-19 in Henan Province has experienced a process of occurrence,rapid development and stable development,at present,the"S"curve of the total number of cases and diffusion ratio has been shown.In addition,the total counts and imported cases of novel coronavirus pneumonia presented significant spatial clustering patterns,with high values mainly distributed in the districts/counties of Xinyang and some districts/counties of Nanyang,Zhumadian and Zhengzhou cities.This likely reflects the potential geographical and network proximity effects.In contrast,the districts/counties with high local diffusion are spatially dispersed due to the fact that most of infected cases were of family-agglomeration diffusion.Considering the influences of population movement,the relative risk associated with population inflow and outflow was found higher in the core urban areas of Xinyang city and surrounding counties,as well as the core urban areas of Anyang,Zhengzhou,Xuchang and Pingdingshan cities.Finally,some strategic suggestions on the prevention and control of epidemic diseases were proposed based on our key findings.