“一带一路”沿线国家恐怖活动对旅游业发展的影响

The Impact of Terrorist Activities on Tourism Development in Countries along the Belt and Road

"一带一路"沿线为恐怖活动多发地带。利用空间杜宾模型量化评估"一带一路"沿线国家恐怖活动及其空间溢出效应对沿线各国旅游业发展的影响,结果显示:①沿线国家恐怖活动和旅游业发展均呈现显著的空间集聚特征;②恐怖活动对旅游业发展产生的直接效应、间接效应(空间溢出效应)和总效应均为负,间接效应更大,即恐怖活动不仅抑制活动发生国旅游业发展,还通过溢出效应对地理邻近和文化相近的国家旅游业产生重要影响;③在次区域层面,中蒙俄-中亚-东南亚、南亚-西亚地区恐怖活动对旅游业的直接、间接和总影响均为负,且南亚-西亚区域的直接和间接影响最显著。这意味着,构建反恐合作联盟和旅游安全合作机制是应对"一带一路"恐怖活动的必要措施,而南亚-西亚则是该合作的重点区域。

Countries along the"Belt and Road Initiative"are areas prone to terrorist activities.This paper examines the impact of terrorist activities and their spatial spillover effects on the tourism development in"the Belt and Road"countries by using Spatial Durbin Model.The results show that:1)both terrorist activities and tourism development have remarkable spatial agglomeration characteristic in"the Belt and Road"areas;2)the direct,indirect(spatial)and total effect of terrorist activities on tourism development are all negative,which means that terrorism not only restrains local tourism development,but also produces spillover effect to the surrounding countries or regions,and the spatial spillover effect is greater;3)at the sub-regional level,the direct,indirect and total impact of terrorist activities of China-Mongolia-RussiaCentral Asia-Southeast Asia and South Asia-West Asia are all negative,especially in the area of South Asia-Western Asia,the effects are greater and more significant.This means that the establishment of the Anti-Terrorism Cooperation Alliance and the Tourism Security Cooperation Mechanism are necessary measures to deal with the"Belt and Road"terrorist activities,while South Asia-West Asia is the key area for this cooperation.