中国对西亚直接投资的贸易效应研究——基于2009-2017年面板数据

A Study on the Trade Effect of China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment in West Asia——Based on Panel Data from 2009 to 2017

西亚是推动“一带一路”建设的核心战略要地,中国与西亚的经贸合作正迎来互利共赢发展的崭新机遇。本文基于2009-2017年中国对西亚的直接投资和贸易数据,分析中国对西亚十国OFDI的贸易效应及其存在的国别差异。结论显示中国对西亚十国OFDI均具有贸易创造效应,同时也有着显著的国别差异。在出口创造效应方面,中国对沙特阿拉伯、土耳其和伊拉克的出口创造效应最显著,对于伊朗、约旦、卡塔尔及阿联酋四个国家的OFDI出口创造效应显著高于西亚十国的整体水平,对科威特、也门及以色列三个国家OFDI的出口创造效应较弱;从进口创造效应看,中国对沙特阿拉伯、伊朗、科威特及以色列OFDI的进口创造效应显著,对土耳其、伊拉克、卡塔尔、阿联酋、约旦和也门OFDI的进口创造效应相对较弱。这为中国对西亚地区开展对外直接投资的规模及流向选择提供参考依据。

West Asia serves as the core strategic position to construct the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI).Economic and trade cooperation between China and West Asia is ushering in a new opportunity for mutually beneficial and win-win development.In this paper,based on the data of China's outward direct investment and trade in West Asia from 2009 to 2017,China's trade effect on outward foreign direct investment(OFDI)of 10 countries in West Asia and their differences are analyzed.The conclusion shows that China has a trade creation effect of OFDI on West Asia.At the same time,there are significant differences between countries considering such effect.In terms of the export creation effect,China has the most significant one on Saudi Arabia,Turkey and Iraq.China's OFDI export creation effect on Iran,Jordan,Qatar and the United Arab Emirates is significantly higher than that of the overall level of the 10 countries in West Asia,while such effect on Kuwait,Yemen and Israel is relatively weak.From the perspective of the import creation effect,China has significant one of OFDI on Saudi Arabia,Iran,Kuwait and Israel,while such effect on Turkey,Iraq,Qatar,UAE,Jordan and Yemen is relatively weak.This will provide a reference for China to choose the scale and direction of its OFDI in West Asia.