广东财政支出的经济增长效应

The Economic Growth Effect of Fiscal Expenditure

为了厘清广东财政支出的经济增长效应,利用1990—2017年广东省人均财政支出量和人均国内生产总值数据包的时间序列数据构建协整及误差修正模型,使用stata软件对数据进行处理分析。结果发现:广东财政支出对经济增长的放大效应非常明显,并且具有较强的时间特性和区域特性。最后,提出扩大广东财政支出对经济增长放大效应的措施:今后广东应该继续加大财政支出力度以确保经济持续健康发展;广东财政支出不能仅着眼当前,而更应该放眼未来;广东财政支出应统筹兼顾珠江三角洲、粤西和粤东并向山区适当倾斜,做到确保效率兼顾公平。

To clarify the economic growth effect of fiscal expenditure in Guangdong province,firstly,a cointegration and an error correction model are constructed based on the time series data of Guangdong's per capita fiscal expenditure and per capita GDP data package from 1990 to 2014.Secondly,the data are processed and analyzed by Stata software.The results show that the amplification effect of Guangdong's fiscal expenditure on economic growth is obvious.It also has strong time and regional characteristics.Finally,the paper puts forward measures to enlarge the amplification effect of Guangdong's fiscal expenditure on economic growth:(1)Guangdong should continue to increase its fiscal expenditure to ensure sustainable and healthy economic development in the future;(2)Guangdong's fiscal expenditure should not only focus on the present,but also on the future;(3)Guangdong's fiscal expenditure should take into account the Pearl River Delta,western and Eastern Guangdong as a whole and should appropriately direct to the mountainous areas to ensure efficiency and fairness.