税制结构与消费产出比——理论分析与基于OECD国家的实证研究

Tax Structure and Ratio of Household Consumption to Total Output:Theoretical and Empirical Analysis Based on OECD Members

居民消费反映着经济增长的需求动力和增长效果,政府征税的强度和结构会对居民消费产生重要影响。本文在动态一般均衡分析框架下,研究政府征收资本税、劳动税和消费税对居民消费产出比的影响,结果发现:各种税税率对消费产出比均起到抑制作用,但是抑制作用随税率提高基本呈减弱趋势。在实证方面,本文借鉴Mendoza等(1994)对要素税率的测算方法,测算了28个OECD国家1965-2014年的消费、劳动所得和资本所得的平均有效税率,并以此为基础进行了实证分析,实证结果不仅支持了上述理论判断,还表明不同税种对居民消费产出比的抑制强度不同,即消费税强于资本税,资本税强于劳动税。

Household consumption is one of the driving forces for economic growth and also reflects the growth outcome,while overall tax burden and tax structure have a great impact on household consumption.Under a dynamic general equilibrium framework,this paper examines the effects of different tax instruments,including capital income tax,labor income tax and consumption tax,on the ratio of household consumption to total output in the economy.We find that all three tax instruments have a negative impact on household consumption,while this negative effect tends to be weakened with the increase of tax rates.Empirically,we follow Mendoza et al.’s(1994)approach to calculate the effective tax rates for capital,labor and consumption for 28 OECD countries for the years 1965-2014 and utilize them to test the theoretical predictions.Our empirical results provide strong evidence in supporting our theoretical arguments and show that different tax instruments exhibit different effects on household consumption,namely consumption tax has the largest detrimental effect on household consumption,followed by capital income tax and labor income tax.