收入水平、收入分布与进口需求

Per-capita Income,Income Distribution and Import Demand

由于消费者偏好是非位似的,收入水平和分布的变化会影响进口需求结构,且对不同类型消费品的影响不尽相同。本文使用2002-2017年城镇居民家庭住户调查(UHS)和海关数据,构建收入水平和收入分布指标,对消费品进口需求进行边际分解,可以发现:随着收入水平提高,消费者对高收入弹性消费品的进口需求增速更快,其中约25%是来自于进口产品范围的扩张,75%是来自对同类商品进口强度的增加;相比于低收入弹性消费品,高收入弹性消费品的质量分布更为分散,产品差异性更大,伴随收入水平提升,消费者对于高质量消费品的进口需求显著增加。此外,收入分布的右偏会进一步加强上述效应。为适应收入水平提升推动的进口多元化和产品质量升级诉求,国家应进一步降低高收入弹性消费品进口的制度成本,主动扩大进口,充分发挥进口对提振消费、扩大开放的积极作用。

Non-homothetic preference predicts an association between income and trade patterns.In this paper,we use data from the Chinese Urban Household Survey and the Customs to explore the effect of per-capita income and income distribution on import demand with respect to extensive margin,intensive margin and quality upgrading.Empirical test shows that provinces of higher income levels import more high income-elastic goods,where the extensive margin contributes 25%and the intensive margin contributes 75%.The import quality within categories improves systematically with per-capita income as well,and the positive skewness of income distribution strengthens the effects.In order to meet the expanding demand for diversified income-elastic and high-quality goods driven by rising income,the Chinese government should take further steps to lower tariffs,reduce institutional costs in import,and continue opening up.