“船大好挡浪,浪大造大船”——基于货币政策影响房地产企业资本结构的视角

A Great Ship Keeps off Waves,Great Waves Make Great Ships:Based on the Perspective of Monetary Policy Affecting the Capital Structure of Real Estate Enterprises

本文以房地产上市公司资本结构作为研究对象,从供给层面研究了货币政策在房地产市场的调控效果,解释了房地产市场"船大好挡浪,浪大造大船"效应。研究发现货币政策能够显著影响房地产企业资本结构的调整,且不同特质的房地产企业受到货币政策影响的程度亦不相同,规模大、融资约束低的房地产企业对于货币政策的调控更具有敏感性和较强的承受能力,"船大好挡浪"效应显现。同时,货币政策的调整会增加房地产企业的垄断程度,致使房地产企业"强者越强,强者恒强"而产生"浪大造大船"特征。据此,本文提出房地产市场"供需兼顾、分类指导、市场政策竞争中性审查"的政策调控思路。

This paper takes the capital structure of real estate listed companies as the research object,studies the regulation effect of monetary policy on the real estate market from the supply side,and explains the effect of"a great ship keeps off the waves and great waves make big ships".The research shows that monetary policy can significantly affect the capital structure of heterogeneous real estate enterprises.Real estate enterprises with large scale and low financing constraints are sensitive to and able to withstand the regulation of monetary policy,indicating that"the ship can keep off the waves".The adjustment of policies will increase the degree of monopoly of real estate enterprises,making the large enterprises even larger and the small ones smaller,indicating that"great waves make great ships".To this end,this paper puts forward the policy regulation recommendation of"supply and demand consideration,differentiated guidance and market policy competitive neutral examination"in the real estate market.