产业体系成熟度评价方法研究

Assessment Method of Industrial System Maturity Levels

本文提出产业体系成熟度概念,新增包括自主可控能力和行业主导能力在内的产业安全可控程度评价因素,构建相应的评价准则和评价模型。这一方法考虑了技术、设备、资金、产品等产业要素供给是否具有独立自主性,评价结果可以反映一国产业安全可控程度的基本状况。应对我国战略性新兴产业宏观研究亟需,完成了25个新兴产业方向的产业体系成熟度评价分析。结果表明,对于研究涉及的25个新兴产业方向,产业体系进入发展阶段或成熟阶段的产业方向数量相对较少,且多数产业方向的安全可控程度评价结果不佳。具体而言,仅有纯电动汽车产业的产业体系处于成熟阶段且产业安全可控程度强;轻薄化增强现实(AR)显示模组,生物医药、生物反应器及成套装置,应急疫苗研发与制备技术3个产业方向的产业体系成熟程度偏低,自主可控能力与行业主导能力均较弱。我国不少新兴产业方向在产业安全可控方面的短板较为突出,在加快构建自主可控的现代产业体系过程中,应注重提高本国资本对核心技术、原材料、标准、品牌等要素的掌控能力。

This paper proposes the concept of industrial system maturity level, and introduces a new factor, namely, industry security and controllability level(ISCL), which further comprises the autonomous and controllable ability and the industry leading ability. Corresponding assessment criteria and model are also constructed. This method takes into account whether the supply of industrial elements such as technology, equipment, capital, and products are independent. The assessment results can reflect the basic state of a country’s ISCL. In response to the urgent need for macro-research on China’s strategic emerging industries, this study assessed and analyzed the industrial system maturity levels of 25 emerging industry directions. It shows that, among the 25 directions, the industrial systems of only few industrial directions have entered into a developing or mature stage, and most industrial directions got unsatisfactory assessment results for their ISCLs. Specifically, only the industrial system of the battery electric vehicle industry is in the mature stage and has a high ISCL. The ISCLs of light-weight augmented reality display module, biomedical bioreactor and complete equipment, and emergency vaccine research and preparation, are relatively low;and the autonomous and controllable ability as well as the industry leading ability of these three industrial directions are weak. Many emerging industries in China have prominent shortcomings in the ISCL. In the process of accelerating the construction of an independent and controllable modern industrial system, attention should be paid to improving the domestic capital’s control over the core technologies, raw materials, standards, brand, and other elements.