美国税改对全球生产格局的重构效应研究--基于生产长度和嵌入位置视角

Effect of USA Tax Reform on the Reconstruction of Global Production Pattern:From the Perspective of Production Length and Embedded Position

本文运用了全球贸易分析模型与生产分解模型的嵌套链接,构建了全球价值链生产长度与嵌入位置两个维度的指标体系,评估了美国税改对全球生产格局的重构效应。研究发现:第一,美国税改将延伸中国与其他经济体的双边生产长度,缩减美国与其他经济体的双边生产长度。第二,美国减税将增进中国上游度与下游度,美国呈相反态势。第三,美国税改对中国的纺织业、汽车业及电子业的生产长度均有促进作用,而对美国这三大行业的生产长度均有抑制效应。第四,中国的纺织业、汽车业与电子业的嵌入位置均有所增长,而美国这三大产业则有所减弱。总体而言,特朗普减税缩减美国生产长度,减弱其全球价值链嵌入位置,却促进中国全球价值链生产长度延伸,推进中国全球价值链嵌入位置攀升。

This paper applies an effective linkage between Global Trade Analysis Project and production decomposition model,focuses on the two dimensions of global value chain production length and embedding position,and constructs the index systems of the global production length and embedding position,in order to evaluate the effect of US tax reform on the world economy.There are four main findings.Firstly,Trump tax reform will expand the bilateral production length of China and other economies,and reduce the bilateral production length of the United States.Secondly,the results indicate that Trump tax-cut reform will increase China’s upstreamness and downstreamness,while the US is in the opposite results.Thirdly,Trump tax reform will promote the production length of China’s textile,automobile and electronics industries which in USA will be suppressed.Fourthly,the embedded positions of China’s textile,automotive and electronics industries will be increased but in the United States will be weakened.In general,Trump tax cuts will inhibit US production length and reduce its global value chain embedded position,and will promote the extension of China’s global production chain and improve the position of China’s global value chain.