摘要
“一带一路”倡议是我国为实现全面开放和推动全球再平衡而推出的重大举措,做好投资风险的评估工作是该倡议顺利推进的重要保障。根据“丝绸之路经济带”沿线国家2017年各项数据,构建了集经济、政治、社会、主权信用、资源禀赋和双边关系于一体的综合评价体系,并引入粗糙集和模糊C均值聚类的方法,对各国投资风险进行具体评估。研究结果表明:东北亚两国投资风险适中,中东欧沿线各国风险普遍较低,西亚沿线国家风险普遍较高,南亚和中亚五国在风险等级区中分布差异明显。
The“Belt and Road Initiative”is a major move for China to achieve full scale opening up and promote global rebalancing.Investment risk assessment is a guarantee for the smooth proceeding of the initiative.Based on the data of countries along the“Silk Road Economic Belt”in 2017,this paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation system by integrating factors like economy,politics,society,sovereign credit,resource and bilateral relations,and introduces the methods of rough set and fuzzy cmeans clustering to assess the investment risk of each country.The results show that the investment risk in Northeast Asia is moderate,the risk in countries along the central and Eastern Europe is generally low,and the risk in countries along the West Asia is generally high,and there are significant risk level distribution difference among the five countries in South Asia and Central Asia.
作者
陈菁泉
张晶
米军
Chen Jingquan;Zhang Jing;Mi Jun(Institute of Economic and Social Development,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,China;Institute of Statistics,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,China;School of Economics,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,China)
出处
《金融理论探索》
2020年第2期32-42,共11页
Exploration of Financial Theory
基金
国家社科基金重大专项招标项目“未来3-5年共建‘一带一路'面临的机遇、风险和挑战研究”(19VDL002)
国家社会科学基金重点项目“丝绸之路经济带建设的风险评估及安全管理机制研究”(18AGJ003)
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金“转轨国家金融安全与宏观调控问题研究”(16YJA790006)。
